Box Office Talk: City of Bones, The World’s End, You’re Next Predictions

The end of summer is disappointing in so many ways. Of course there’s the simple fact that its the end of summer, but there’s also school starting and the release of of movies that most could care less about. Every once in awhile one of those late summer releases turns out to be a hidden gem, take 2011′s The Debt for example. Of the three new films being released this weekend none appear to be possible gems, but two could be potential box office hits.

The ongoing search for a replacement Twilight franchise continues. We’ve already seen Beautiful Creatures and The Host tank at the box office, and next up on the carousal of disappointment is The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones. I won’t pretend to know what the story is, nor do I have much interest in finding out. The film is based on a popular series of books geared toward tweens. I realize that I’m not the target audience for these types of films, but instead of wasting $60 million on a movie for screaming teenage girls (aren’t they getting the upcoming One Direction: This is Us?) wouldn’t investing the money in something original be a wiser investment? I expect The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones to open poorly, putting another undeserving franchise out of its misery.

The World’s End is the conclusion to director Edgar Wright’s ‘Cornetto’ trilogy, starring Simon Pegg and Nick Frost. The pair previously starred in the first two chapters of of Wright’s trilogy, Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz. Buzz for The World’s End has been extremely positive and the film looks genuinely funny, but opening on only 1549 screens limits its box office potential. The bigger question for the film is whether it can bring in an audience beyond those familiar with the series and that isn’t something I see happening, which is unfortunate.

The movie with the best chance of knocking Lee Daniels’ The Butler from the top spot is the horror-thriller You’re Next. The home intruder premise has proven successful with films like The Strangers and The Purge, from a few months earlier. The trailers for You’re Next have been really good and effective, as interest has slowly begun to rise for the film. In 2013 horror films have had a great year at the box office with 5 films (Texas Chainsaw 3DMamaEvil DeadThe Purge and The Conjuring) opening at #1. The horror genre is popularity at the moment, and I believe You’re Next has a fight on its hands and won’t hit the $20 million mark, but should win the weekend.

Here’s how I see the Top 10

Box Office Predictions

RANK
TITLE
JOE’S PREDICTIONS
1 You’re Next $17,000,000
2 Lee Daniels’
The Butler
$16,000,000
3 We’re The Millers $11,100,000
4 The World’s End $10,500,000
5 The Mortgage Instruments:
City of Bones
$10,500,000 (3-day)
$16,000,000 (5-day)
6 Planes $7,400,000
7 Elysium $7,100,000
8 Kick-Ass 2 $6,000,000
9 Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters $4,900,000
10 2 Guns $3,100,000

This weekend is shaping up to be a good one as there is a great deal of disparity among the predictions. You’re Next has everyone all over the place. Shane ($25M) and Todd ($21.6M) both foreshadow the film opening over $20 million, while Nick ($10M), Jason ($10M) and Trevor ($9M) all see it underperforming. The World’s End has the widest margin separating high end Shane ($29M), who at this point must be hoping that if he throws enough $hit against the wall some of it is bound to stick, from low end Trevor ($8.5M). In all fairness Shane is the only one of the predictors that believes the film will open at over $15M. Finally, The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, with its 5-day opening, is similar to You’re Next in that most see the film opening differently. Daniel ($25.4M) sees a solid opening, followed closely by Todd ($23.9M), Nick ($23M) and Trevor ($22M). On the other hand, Shane ($19M), Jason ($17M) and myself ($16M) see box office disappointment. This is one of those weekends that offers a lot of opportunity, and I for one like those kinds of weekends.

Player /
Site
The Mortal Instruments:
City of Bones
The World’s End
You’re Next
Joe
Two Dude Review
$16 $10.5 $17M
Todd
All My Life…I Wanted To Be A Blogster
$23.9M $12.4M $21.6M
Daniel
Daniel’s Film Reviews
$25.4M $10M $18M
Nick
The Cinematic Katzenjammer
$23M $15M $10M
Jason
Movie Mavericks
$17M $9.5M $10M
Trevor
Movie Mavericks
$22M $8.5M $9M
Shane
The Cinematic Katzenjammer
$19M $29M $25M

Written By Joe

You can find Joe’s site at Two Dude Review.


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