Box Office Talk: Closed Circuit, Getaway, One Direction Predictions

When the smoke clears and the dust settles on the 2013 summer box office, the season will have set a new domestic box office record for total gross. The season started off with a bang on May 3rd with the release of Iron Man 3, the year’s highest grossing film to date. For the year only Despicable Me 2 has been able to cross $300 million, and 4 other films passed $200 million. In total 15 films have grossed over $100 million, with 3 other films knocking on the door. As of August 29, the 2013 summer season has grossed a domestic total of over $4.4 billion; without question an amazing total.

As summer comes to an end the season appears to be going out in typical fashion, a silent whimper. Last weekend’s disappointing box office was the lowest combined total for the top 12 films since April 26th, and appears to have been merely a precursor to what I expect to be an even more disappointing weekend considering the new releases.

Over Labor Day weekend in 2011 Focus Features released The Debt to an opening just under $10 million. Not a bad opening for a film that was made for $20 million and pretty much flew under the radar. While the film didn’t blow up the box office with its $31 million take, it did turn a profit and was even quite good. This year Focus Features seemed to be hoping for a repeat of last year’s mild success and is releasing Closed Circuit. I believe films like The Debt and Closed Circuit are mature thrillers, of which they are a rare commodity nowadays. Considering how many big budget, animated, family, and science fiction films are released each year and how few adult themed movies come out, you’d think marketing a film like Closed Circuit wouldn’t be all that difficult. Unfortunately that’s not the case and these films are often times barely noticed upon their release. Closed Circuit is not only a victim of minimal marketing, but also suffers from being released on only 870 screens. If no one knows a movie is released, how can people be expected to pay money to see it? I’m optimistic that Closed Circuit will open at about half of what The Debt did, but I admit that its unlikely to reach that number since it has a lesser known cast.

Another film that has box office bust written all over it is Getaway, starring Ethan Hawke and Selena Gomez. Hawke’s last 3 films have been relatively successful, but that run appears to be coming to an abrupt end with Getaway. Pre-release buzz on the film has been terrible, with further evidence of how bad the film appears one need to look no further than its 2% ‘rotten’ rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Getaway‘s appeal may actually be for people to see if the movie is really as bad as everyone claims. Although I expect Closed Circuit to be a good film, it doesn’t seem as though the same can be said for Getaway. I believe that both films have a very good chance of finishing outside of the weekend top 10.

The one new release that is guaranteed to succeed this weekend is the musical documentary One Direction: This is Us. The boy band, reminiscent of how popular boy bands like New Kids on the Block, N’Sync, and Backstreet Boys, is at the peak of its popularity. In the last 5 years musical documentaries have begun to gain increased theatrical releases, beginning with U2 3D which grossed over $10 million. That same year saw the release of Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour and the film went on to gross an astounding $65+ million. Other concert films followed, with Michael Jackson’s This is It and Justin Bieber: Never Say Never being the biggest box office successes, each earning over $72 million. The cost to see a concert can be ridiculous, and while seeing a movie isn’t the same thing as seeing a concert, it is a cheaper way to see the band is a larger than life setting. Although I’m the farthest thing from a fan of One Direction, I do have a 7-year-old daughter that’s been asking me to take her to see the movie since she saw the trailer months ago. I’m certain that I’m not alone in having been put in that situation, and think there’s going to be a lot of dad’s forced to endure a theater full of screaming girls. I don’t think One Direction: This is Us will come anywhere near the $29+ million opening of Justin Bieber’s film, but I do think the film has a chance to hit the $20 million mark over the 4-day holiday weekend.

Here’s how I see the Top 10

Box Office Predictions

RANK
TITLE
JOE’S PREDICTIONS
1 One Direction: This is Us $15,800,000
2 Lee Daniels’
The Butler
$10,200,000
3 We’re The Millers $8,500,000
4 Planes $5,500,000
5 The World’s End $4,600,000
6 Closed Circuit $4,600,000 (3-day)
$5,900,000 (5-day)
7 Getaway $4,500,000
8 The Mortgage Instruments:
City of Bones
$3,900,000
9 Elysium $3,800,000
10 Blue Jasmine $2,900,000

At the time of this writing I didn’t have predictions on any films from Jason, and onlyClosed Circuit from Trevor. I will include them once they are received.

With the exception of Closed Circuit this weekend’s films surprisingly have some disparity in the predictions. Closed Circuit‘s 5-day numbers are all low, with Nick ($7M) the most optimistic of the bunch. Shane ($5M) sees the lowest opening, with the rest of us not that far off. Getaway offers the greatest opportunity for some movement. Shane ($18M) sees the film opening very well, followed by Nick ($12M), Todd ($9.2M) and Daniel ($8.7M). I ($4.5M) see a huge disappointment and in doing so am leaving a big opportunity for everyone to make up ground. The predictions for One Direction: This is Us are relatively similar, with everyone predicting an opening of over $12M over the weekend. I ($15.8M) see the film opening highest, with Daniel ($15.2M) the only other person having the film open at over $15M. Nick ($13m), Todd ($12.6M), and Shane ($12M) aren’t that far off though in their thoughts on how the concert film does. Overall, there’s a good chance for Daniel to regain 2nd place, Nick to continue to close the gap on 2nd and 3rd, or for Todd to increase his lead and get back some of the ground he lost last week in his quest for the top spot.

Player /
Site
Closed Circuit
Getaway
One Direction:
This is Us
Joe
Two Dude Review
$5.9M $4.5M $15.8M
Todd
All My Life…I Wanted To Be A Blogster
$5.9M $9.2M $12.6M
Daniel
Daniel’s Film Reviews
$6.9M $8.7M $15.2M
Nick
The Cinematic Katzenjammer
$7M $12M $13M
Jason
Movie Mavericks
Trevor
Movie Mavericks
$6.5M
Shane
The Cinematic Katzenjammer
$5M $18M $12M

We’re always look for new blood to join in the game over at Box Office Ace. All you have to do is register (IT’S FREE!!!!) and start putting in your predictions for the available films. I’ve heard from a very reliable source that sometime soon there will be prizes to the top predictors. More importantly, don’t you want to have bragging rights just for beating the top dog?!

Written By Joe

You can find Joe’s site at Two Dude Review.


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