Box Office Talk: ‘Insidious 2’, ‘The Family’ Predictions

There’s just something about the Fall months and horror films that go together like chocolate and peanut butter. Franchises like Saw and Resident Evil have done well opening during this time, and then there’s the Paranormal Activity series which has been a gold mine. Insidious Chapter 2, from the same company (Blumhouse Productions) that gave us the aforementioned Paranormal Activity,Sinister and The Purge, hopes to continue the Fall success and become another seasonal franchise in the process.

In April 2011 Insidious had an opening a little over $13 million and finished the weekend 3rd overall, behind Hop and The Source Code. The film went on to gross over $54 million on a budget of $1.5 million. Insidious was a box office success, but the film’s popularity grew once it was released on home video. Insidious Chapter 2 takes place immediately following the end of the first film and if recent history has shown anything, the sequel will open significantly higher than the original. Blumhouse Productions has been on a hot streak, and in the process has been creating some entertaining horror franchises. If Insidious Chapter 2 does as well as I anticipate it will easily win the weekend, expect a sequel announcement very soon. In all honesty, I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends similar to the first leading into a 3rd film.

Robert DeNiro has had a storied career, winning 2 Oscars and having been nominated for 5 more. DeNiro’s strength throughout his career has been his convincing performances as a mobster. There are some actors who prefer not to be typecast in certain roles, and there are others that accept those roles with arms wide open. In DeNiro’s case, most of his mob related roles have been memorable. In recent years, aside from his performance in last year’s Silver Linings Playbook, DeNiro hasn’t really done much worth recognizing and the box office numbers reflect that as well. The only films that have grossed more than $100 million domestically, once again aside from last year’s Silver Linings Playbook, are the three Meet the Parents films and prior to that was Analyze This; the common theme being that all 4 films were comedies. In The Family DeNiro combines the best of both worlds, playing the role of a mobster who along with his family are in Witness Protection hiding out from the mafia, and incorporating quite a few comedic moments. The Family doesn’t look terrible, has a respectable director in Luc Besson (The Professional), and a good cast (Tommy Lee Jones and Michelle Pfeiffer). I don’t think this will break that $100 million mark, but I do think there’s potential for a better than expected opening.

Here’s how I see the Top 10

Box Office Predictions

RANK TITLE JOE’S PREDICTIONS
1 Insidious Chapter 2 $33,500,000
2 The Family $12,300,000
3 Riddick $6,700,000
4 Instructions Not Included $5,100,000
5 Lee Daniels’
The Butler
$4,700,000
6 We’re The Millers $4,500,000
7 The World’s End $2,900,000
8 Planes $2,300,000
9 Elysium $1,600,000
10 One Direction: This is Us $1,400,000

With 2 new films opening and some significant disparity in the predictions, this weekend offers the possibility for our first changes on the leader board in quite some time. In the on-going fight for 2nd place, Todd ($11.2M) and Daniel ($11.6M) are separated by a mere $4K in their predictions for The Family. However, there’s a difference of $9.2M with their Insidious Chapter 2 predictions. I have to admit that I’ve been entertained by the back and forth that’s gone on most of the year with both of these guys, and truly feel that things could go either way. Thanks in large part to Jason’s incredible run lately we’ve got a heated battle for 4th place as well, between he and Nick. Jason ($9.5M) and Nick ($6M) both have the lowest expectations for The Family, while Jason ($33M) has the 2nd highest opening number for Insidious and Nick ($24M) is closer to the middle of the pack. 3 months ago I’d have told you that Jason had no shot at a top 4 finish, but things change quickly in this game. As for the rest of us, I see both films opening very well and predict the highest numbers for both. Trevor and Shane ($12M) are on the higher end with their prediction on The Family, while Trevor ($24M) is in the middle with his ($24M) Insidious prediction and Shane ($19M) is at the lower end.

Player /
Site
The Family Insidious Chapter 2
Joe
Two Dude Review
$12.3M $33.5M
Todd
All My Life…I Wanted To Be A Blogster
$11.2M $22.6M
Daniel
Daniel’s Film Reviews
$11.6M $31.8M
Nick
The Cinematic Katzenjammer
$6M $24M
Jason
Movie Mavericks
$9.5M $33M
Trevor
Movie Mavericks
$12M $24M
Shane
The Cinematic Katzenjammer
$12M $19M

We’re always look for new blood to join in the game over at Box Office Ace. All you have to do is register (IT’S FREE!!!!) and start putting in your predictions for the available films. I’ve heard from a very reliable source that sometime soon there will be prizes to the top predictors. More importantly, don’t you want to have bragging rights just for beating the top dog?!

Written By Joe

You can find Joe’s site at Two Dude Review.


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